"Not all men" and other false probabilities

"I understand that this is a possibility, but wouldn't it be extremely rare?"

Even if something is extremely rare, there might be 99.9% chance that it will not happen. Which says that it will still happen to 1 person out of each 1000.

That's a lot of people when you look at it, and the 1 in each 1000 is not selected arbitrarily.

It is misleading to consider how likely is something to happen in general.

The question should be how likely is it that I will be the 1 in each 1000. In Czechia this is described by the term "socially vulnerable".

My neighborhood in Rio has 146.000 inhabitants according to the 2010 census. I don't know anyone else who is a young, conventionally attractive woman, who is an immigrant, works autonomously, has no family, is autistic and fails to make friends (or eye contact for that matter), has light skin just like all the universally hated colonizers, and has money on her.

Don't be stupid, people.

Comments

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